The RockHopper Cautionary Tale Part 2.

British flag of the Falkland Islands

Non Commercial!

Well there you go as intimated the latest RKH drill failed to enthuse the market. Non commercial. Lets hope you all used caution.

Not a fan of the Falklands mania too many imponderables but as posted last week at least RKH are under-pinned by Sea-lion! Take no credit for calling this one!

Good Luck.

 

Viva!

 

Daniel

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  1. Heelander says:

    Some facts then

    Non commercial as a separate exploratory well= yes
    Oil shows in all cores
    Confirmed understanding of basin geology
    Sand 3 it connected on same pressure gradient as Sea Lion discovery 8 km away (its the Oil Water Contact at one edge of the field) so appraisal 1=Check
    Now onto the southern lobe or maybe stick a whole right in the middle

    I just used caution and bought a load as people panicked and it became oversold, suspect that is not the caution you were on about though….

    Right time for beer.

  2. and says:

    Optare – maker of buses
    Finally some superb news

  3. Rod says:

    I’m impressed Dan. I sold out on your email at 340p trusting that your info was good. And damn was it good. I’m looking to buy in the the negativity which is wholey unjustified, but lets people like me pick up a great company for bargain basement prices. Keep the info coming. Cheers!

  4. alex says:

    xel much better bet than rkh but then I suspect there’s plenty of buyers at 275p for rkh! can’t go wrong at this price.

  5. Bob says:

    Good work Dan, appreciating the posts. Good push on MTA today, has your position changed on Roxi, I notice its still not on the favoured companies list?

  6. darth says:

    brokerman,

    couldn’t find a contact email address for you on this website so have to post my question here. This post is on iii tonight. I would like to know your thoughts on Sound Oil (SOU) as they look very interesting.

    Sound Oil plc (SOU)
    Shares in issue…..1,515,306,331
    Share price………2.80p (2.75p-2.80p)
    Mkt Cap…………£42.4m
    Date: 11 Feb 11

    Presentation – 11 Feb 11
    http://www.soundoil.co.uk/documents/Sound%20Investors%20presentation%20feb%202011%20handout%20PDF.pdf

    Sound Oil – core assets Italy & Indonesia oil & gas

    Overview
    • Billion dollar upside
    • Italy – Existing success NPV10 $226m (£141m or 9.3p/share)
    • Italy – Exploration success NPV10 $500m+(£312m+ or 20.6p+/share)
    • Italy – Additional potential in adjacent Zibido Prospect…NPV10 $320m (£199.67m or 13.2p/share)
    • Indonesia now de-risked and has high upside
    • Significant upside potential-~800 Bscf gas, NPV/EMV $500m+
    • cash at 31.01.2011…$16.5m (£10.3m @ 1.60 USD to GBP)
    • Yorkville £10m SEDA loan facility
    • farm-out deal due for the huge NPV $4OOm Badile gas which will reduce by 50% on farm-out to NPV$201m.
    • farm-out deal due for the NPV10 $85.6m Laura gas but expected to reduce to NPV $43m after 50% farm-out.
    • Placing of £3m on 17.01.11 was 5x oversubscribed (not in presentation)
    • Drilling ready to go – 8 wells in 2011-2013
    – Indonesia Citarum gas: 3 wells in 2011. 1600 Bscf gas Prospect,Upside > 2800 Bscf
    – Indonesia Bangkanai: Kerendan Deep Prospect:1400 Bscf Prospect
    – Indonesia Bangkanai: Jupoi Prospect:3000 Bscf Prospect,Upside > 7000 Bscf
    – Indonesia Bangkanai Kerendan Field: Kalimantan, 133 Bcf committed to power (=55% of reserves). Upside remainder will be used in other projects
    – Italy: Badile Gas: NPV10 = $400 million reduced to NPV $201m on farm-out
    – Italy: Laura Gas: NPV10 = $85.6 million
    – Italy: Strombone Oil: NPV10 = $45.2 million
    – Italy: Nervesa Gas: NPV10 = $17.6 million net
    – Italy: Marciano Production: NPV10 = $7.2 million – *READY FOR IMMEDIATE REVENUE GENERATION*
    • Near term revenues
    • Future cash flows $40+ million pa
    • Exploration has major impact
    • Sound will operate >10 licences
    • Will have substantial interests up to 100%
    • 13 Discoveries
    • 13 Exploration prospects
    • Revenue in 18 months
    • Italy – 17 licenses
    • Italy – 197 Production Concessions + 98 Assigned Exploration Permits
    • The 6 Italian wells in the drilling programme cover an area of 995km. The entire Italian assets cover an area of 2497km. So there is still a further 1502km to drill from its 17 licences and 197 Production Concessions + 98 Assigned Exploration Permits.
    • Italy – 10 other discoveries/prospects ready to be drilled:~100 MMboe potential
    • Italy – Additional 10 Bscf potential in Lina discovery near Laura
    • Italy – Additional ~5 Bscf potential in San Chirico gas discovery near Strombone
    • Italy – Short lead times to first revenues
    • Italy – Low onshore operating costs

    QTY-17 Italian licenses from website:
    http://www.soundoil.co.uk/italian_information.asp

    Italy CPR
    http://www.soundoil.co.uk/documents/Consul_Italy_CPR_July2010.pdf

    ——————————

    Work Programme 2011-2013 ( 8 wells)

    •Q1(2011)…Italy…Badile…100% …Seismic, G&G Studies – START
    •Q2(2011)…Italy…Badile…100%…Seismic, G&G Studies – END
    •Q2(2011)…Italy…Marciano…99%…Well Completion – END
    •Q3(2011)…Italy…Dora…100%…Seismic, G&G Studies – START
    •Q3(2011)…Italy…Laura…100%…Seismic, G&G Studies – START
    •Q3(2011)…Indonesia…Citarum 3 wells…20%…Exploration Drilling – START/END
    •Q3(2011)…Indonesia…Bangkanai…5%…Exploration Drilling – START
    •Q4(2011)…Italy…Dora…100%…Seismic, G&G Studies – END
    •Q4(2011)…Italy…Laura…100%…Seismic, G&G Studies – END
    •Q4(2011)…Italy…Strombone…50%…Appraisal Drilling _ START/END
    •Q1(2012)…Indonesia…Bangkanai…5%…Exploration Drilling – END
    •Q1(2012)…Italy…Strombone…50%…Well Completion – END
    •Q2(2012)…Indonesia…Bangkanai…5%…Exploration Drilling,4 wells-START
    •Q3(2012)…Italy…Nervesa…50%…Appraisal Drilling – START
    •Q4(2012)…Italy…Nervesa…50%…Well Completion – END
    •Q1(2013)…Italy…Strombone…50%…Appraisal Drilling
    •Q2(2013)…Italy…Strombone…50%…Well Completions
    •Q2(2013)…Indonesia…Bangkanai…5%…Exploration Drilling, 4 wells – END

    Asset potential:

    Planned 6 Italian wells:
    •Italy…Badile gas…153 Bscf…NPV $400m but expected to reduce to NPV $201M (after 50% farm-out)
    -Badile…100%…154.5km
    -Zibido…100%…154.5
    •Italy…Laura gas…30 Bscf…NPV10 $85.6m but expected to reduce to NPV $43m (after 50% farm-out)
    -D150 DR-CS…100%…65.2km
    •Italy…Marciano gas…2.5 Bscf…NPV10 $7.2m
    •Italy…Dora…NPV $44.4m
    -D503 BR-CS…100%…138.1km
    •Italy…Strombone oil…2.2 MMbo…NPV $45m…NPV10 $45.2m
    -Torrente Alvo…50%…84.3km
    •Italy…Nervesa gas…50%…6.3 Bscf…NPV10 $17.6m
    -Carita…50%…529.8km

    Planned Indonesian wells:

    • Citarum PSC:Java
    PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES (P50)
    IN 5 PROSPECTS > 1600 Bscf
    • Indonesia Bangkanai PSC: Kerendan Deep Prospect:
    1400 Bscf Prospect …Upside > 2800 Bscf
    • Indonesia Bangkanai PSC: Jupoi Prospect:
    3000 Bscf Prospect …Upside > 7000 Bscf
    • Bangkanai PSC Kerendan Field: Kalimantan
    NPV10 = $5.6 million net…133 Bcf committed to power (=55% of reserves).

    Additional Licenses in Italy:
    •Italy-Musone
    -Villa Gigli…50%…110.9km
    •Italy-Montefano
    -Sambucheto…95%…147.6km
    •Italy-Marciano
    -Fonte San Damiano…99%…23.7km
    •Italy-Cicorva
    -Monte Negro…50%…287.7
    •Italy-Seggio Romano
    -Solfara Mare…100%…337.0km
    •Italy-San Marco
    -D148 DR-CS…100%…63.1km
    •Italy-San Pietro Pliocene
    -Posta Del Giudice…50%…113.6km
    •Italy-Leas A
    -Monteluro…95%…364.9km
    •Italy-Turchese
    -Colle Ginestre…50%…86.6km
    •Italy-Dalla…100%…138.09km
    -D 150 BR-CS (Offshore)
    •Italy-Elisa…100%…138.09km
    -D 150 BR-CS (Offshore)
    •Italy-Elisa…100%…138.09km
    -D 150 BR-CS (Offshore)
    •Italy-Lina…100%…65.15km
    –D 150 BR-CS (Offshore)

    NOTE 1: Italy “10 other discoveries/prospects ready to be drilled: ~100 MMboe potential”

    NOTE 2: Italy “197 Production Concessions + 98 Assigned Exploration Permits”

    ————————————————

    Cash flow potential from developing just 3 (three!) existing discoveries at Marciano, Strombone & Nervesa

    2012…$2m
    2013…$16m
    2014…$30m
    2015…$40m
    2016…$50m
    2017…$58m
    2018…$70m
    2019…$80m
    2020…$90m
    2021…$100m
    2022…$108m
    2023…$116m
    2024…$122m
    2025…$124m
    2030…$144m

    ————————————————

  7. OILBUG says:

    DAN

    100% than thank you to all the many people that read your blog
    can you please keep us all informed on RKH apprasial well

    99% of my holdings in xel and north sea but there is something about the falklands for the buzz if nothing else.

  1. 12 February, 2011

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