RockHopper News. Dan’s Cautionary Tales!

Sea lion

Caution needed?

Yes we’ve kept our powder dry here for obvious reasons.

But I can tell all you Rockyhopper holders that it’s on a knife-edge down in the Falklands! RKH are not Desire and their share-price is under-pinned somewhat by the Sea Lion discovery so although news may not be favourable re’ this latest drill (which is OUTSIDE the sea-lion discovery)RKH have a tendency to bounce back! The falling share price reflects current market sentiment.  And that sentiment is waxing and waning as we speak. If the SP keeps on falling the feeling in the city is that there’s a leak! Expect a mixed RNS on this drill my sources say it isn’t yet clear-cut one way or the other! 38 days are nearly up so not long left to go now.

But reading between the lines employ caution here.

Good Luck



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  1. stevie says:

    evian mate

  2. OILBUG says:

    rumours :

    2 dry cores
    s2 oil shows

    both non commercial

    confirmed yesterday afternoon hence the fall off in shares.

  3. alex says:

    Just got out today, been holding for seven months here, so still made a small profit. The falling SP for two days on the trot was my main concern, just like all the other failed Falklands drills. Its a gamble. Good luck to those who hold.

  4. davie says:

    Been in since circa 50p and not selling a single share. Even on bad news they still have a min of 170 mmbbl from SL and with a large exploration programme for the year ahead this is a great share to be in.

    I believe the first drill depth hasnt shown any HC’s, but the second deeper section is a small hit and that is what is currently going on now. Wire line and logging to confirm the level of HC shows. Share price up to 450-550p in the next week or two.

  5. antler says:

    pls dan can you come up with some analysis of where encore is heading. i cant figure it out and ive tried. getting nowhere and am frightened of losing my money.if there is more bad news can this turn really bad? cant you just post an opinion of where were going from here. you work it out better than i can. thanks anyway if you cant post a comment. gl

  6. brady says:

    I am starting to get fed up with the Falklands oil shares but some how think that RKH will come good again been in since 57p.
    cheers for cadogan think as you said long term we could see £1+

  7. Christian F says:

    Dan, can you take a look at EMPYREAN ENERGY, EME is the ticker. At the current 7.75p to buy they are capped at £14 million so a real tiddler but are already producing and are set to be part of a 200 well programme over the coming couple of years, yes 200+ wells. Around 12 will be this year. EME should be in my mind trading nearer 30p than 10p but even just trading on par with their JVP’s would put EME at 15p right now.

    There is a direct “read across” to Eureka (EKA on ASX). It is true that Empyrean is half the price it should be since – and I here quote from an email sent by Empyrean’s boss, Tom Kelly, to me: “Rather than taking my view on valuation of the project – an easy extrapolation is to look at the independent valuation model summary provided in Eureka’s (ASX code EKA) last presentation. Their interest is 6.25% and ours is 3% plus a higher interest in a few wells – so dividing by half is reasonably accurate and multiplying by 3/6.25% is conservative. Even these figures make us cheap. Or you can take EKA’s market cap – bearing in mind they have another project (we have three others with two of them in production) and divide this by half. Any way you value us we are undervalued compared to our partners or the independent assessment.”

    There is a reserves report due out within 12 days as it will definitely be out by the end of Feb 2011.

    Not long to see the sp reflect the value on offer here and that starts at 15p, nice 100% from here.


  1. 9 February, 2011

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