There’s some fisticuffs flying around in the city at the moment re” Xcites numbers. The sector watchers are saying that the figures released today just do not add up to 600p target that is why XEL have drifted down.
The reserve update from XEL doesn’t look awfully good. Third party consultants TRACS have come up with 2P reserves estimates for the Bentley heavy oilfield of 28m barrels recoverable, with a further contingent resource on a “best estimate” basis of 87m barrels, totaling 115m barrels this is way short of 160m barrels of oil on a P50 basis, ie almost 40% higher, with a P10 estimate of 235m barrels. TRACS have also provided estimated valuations for the reserves which look quite punchy – $396m for the 2P case and an additional $961m for the contingent resource, translating into $14/bbl and $11/bbl respectively.
However the Arbuthnot note figures are not believed by the sector watcher. Now throw into the mix some data from Global data then the current price is mooted to be reflecting the 40% difference in the figures. Hence the drop.
There’s also a view floating around that a further placing could be on the cards add this to the recent hike in North sea taxes and you have a falling sp. But I would expect XEL to climb back up as first production nears.
Hope this helps.