Xcite energy The fall explained.

There’s some fisticuffs flying around in the city at the moment re” Xcites numbers. The sector watchers are saying that the figures released today just do not add up to 600p target that is why XEL have drifted down.

The reserve update from XEL  doesn’t look awfully good. Third party consultants TRACS have come up with 2P reserves estimates for the Bentley heavy oilfield of 28m barrels recoverable, with a further contingent resource on a “best estimate” basis of 87m barrels, totaling  115m barrels this is way short of 160m barrels of oil on a P50 basis, ie almost 40% higher, with a P10 estimate of 235m barrels. TRACS have also provided estimated valuations for the reserves which look quite punchy – $396m for the 2P case and an additional $961m for the contingent resource, translating into $14/bbl and $11/bbl respectively.

However the Arbuthnot note figures are not believed by the sector watcher. Now throw into the mix some data from Global data then the current price is mooted to be reflecting the 40% difference in the figures. Hence the drop.

There’s also a view floating around that a further placing could be on the cards add this to the recent hike in North sea taxes and you have a falling sp. But I would expect XEL to climb back up as first production nears.

Hope this helps.



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  1. Olivanders says:

    Thanks Dano

  2. RogueTraders says:

    Cheers Dan, not having a good run at the moment, p/f has been battered since December!!

  3. Chris Clark says:

    Thanks for the reassurance

  4. Gordon says:

    Ouch… not been a good couple of weeks for me – EO + Xcite taken a bit of a battering. Will hold for now and hope things improve in the future.

  5. james says:

    Wow everything you recommend seems to be sliding significantly at the moment…San Leon/ BHR/NPE/XEL/EO….

    Some of these you’ll say you recommended much earlier on, but you also recommended right at the peak for practically all of them as well…or do your later recommendations not hold as much weight as your earlier ones?

    You’ve got a bit of a explaining to do…I assume this is a humbling experience as it is for many investors.

    • Brokerman says:

      I think you’ll find James that just because you write it in a comment doesn’t make it true.Why you continually post blatant bull is known only to you. At no time did i reccomend any of these shares at their peak as you well know if you think that Encores peak was 50p then you are an idiot or that Xcites was 110p or NPE peak was 100p. I don’t know why you continually post blatant lies. You should ask yourself why your comments some of which have been absolutely disgracefully abusive are spammed. Bhr peaked ‘ over 25p, San rose to over 42p. It seems to me that you are one of those morons who are constantly seeking to aportion blame for YOUR failing investments. If you had followed this site as many have then you’d be awash with profit. GKP,Chariot,Xcite,Encore,Haike,Nautical,Europa,Cadogan,Range,GCM,Hardy oil,Matra,Oilex,Premieroil,Rockhopper,Vog. I could go on but I think you get the message. Maybe the reason why this blog is popular is that we never tell people to buy we ask people to research and watchlist The moronic minority of which you inhabit will never be successful. Grow some balls James and stop blaming others for your miserable investment failures.


    • sarahqwerty says:

      You’re a liar jimbo.
      Dan well done and keep up the brill work.


  6. SolaKing says:

    Excellent insight there, and thanks for the heads up Dan.
    So where will this settle? Unfortunately, unlike EO. where I have enough understanding to know what it is worth, I can say that of XEL, so I don’t if current price of 228p is a buy opportunity or there is further fall in this share’s SP. Any further thoughts by anyone? SK.

  7. alex says:

    sold out first thing this morning, what an anticlimax. will be back at 200p…

    • SolaKing says:

      Alex did you say at 200p? It has fallen below that already. I really don’t know how to value this to know at what price to take advantage of it. Any ideas anyone?

      • alex says:

        Didnt expect such a crazy drop holy smoke….. Thankfully I didnt have a stop loss at 200p coz it bounced stright back to 240p!! Crazy Market Markers doing PI’s over as usual, all fun and games. Reminds me of RKH during the mega tree shake!

  8. Oil Stock Lover says:

    So a BoD making statements that can’t be collaborated by an independent source. Wonderful. And then you have the rest of the oil market being ridiculous. GKP failed to climb any where on their last good RNS, didn’t realise the risk increased the same proportional amount as the increase in assets last time. And then you have BLVN doing exactly what they said they would do, and announcing said results and the price drops. Honestly, this market atm is nuts!

  9. OILBUG says:

    very frustrating re xel

    I think the North Sea has so much potential but this tax issue has brought out real problems.

  10. Lt says:

    Dan, what has happened to your recent Matra posting? It has vanished?

  11. Stu says:

    Dan, i know you have alot on your plate with new site… but any chance you could look at SLE again. The fundamentals haven’t change but it’s still sliding, an update, even brief would be great when you get some info.


    • Anton Gully says:

      AIM shares slide unless there’s news or the promise of news. Nothing fundamentally is changing, just some people getting bored and wanting to put thier money into “the next big thing”. The insitutional investors aren’t selling up.

    • Lepracauns says:

      The market is giving it a hiding, it’s seems to be sectorwide though. Only concern may be leakage from Morroco, or some random EU decree on shale. We seem to be breaking support points, but then again what share isn’t.

  12. Barnstonpickle says:

    JAMES what the bloody hell are you spouting bullacca for? BMD NEVER called those stocks at their peak. Your full of shite mate. why come on here delibrately posting lies? Some people really get under my nostrils.
    Every one remembers bmd writing about eo npe xel way back over 12 months ago peeps have had plenty of time to take profits, as i have done fella, ive made fantastic gains researching what this site points to and theres thousands like me You are a real saddo expecting this chap to constantly write articles on stocks that have hit the stratosphere to take blame when 16 months later they slide back. What a fooking idiot you are.

    Daniel the sooner you get your new site on line the better then we wont have to read or deal with nutjobs like James.


    Thanks for the info for the last year or so you have helped thousands like me. made a packet on Haike too.

  13. Lepracauns says:

    Ohhhh Hindsight! Where were you when I needed you!


    Well two things have been happening over the past months. A drag down by the market on SP through a combo general sentiment and perhaps some doubts / market efficiency as to the Revised Reserves and on the other side…. a drag in the other direction with the investor buying into the positivity of the companies PR.

    I took a hit of around 15p, when I bailed on opening. A wise choice.. Thank you hindsight.

    Let’s see where too next… Already an ISA tranch of my XEL into RRL… Somefully recoup some of that XEL hit on the build up to spud, as always won’t leave ecverything in for drill results.

    PS Dan that Matra post was a bit close the wire. I think Big Brother now arrests folks for “pre-crimes”! You need to have a lawyer write those posts for you!

    Buena Suerte Amigos!

  14. soontobecolonel says:

    as i see this DAN, the BOD should be providing answers to the exact reasons they decided 383 was the magic number to sell at & what exactly they intend to do over the coming 6 months to create shareholder value out of an uncertain situation at the moment. For instance we have had no clarification over the North sea tax implications on the business, no clarification on where the money is coming from to fund this enterprise.

    As things stand if these chaps come to the market for more cash they better make damn well sure the first cash on the table is their own before they attempt to dilute my holding.

    You’ve mentioned before the new site will club together the interest of pi’s to extract answers from incumbent boards like this. How & when is this going to happen? Can XEL serve as the first case study, or did i misinterpret the revolution?

  15. Jeremy says:

    Dear Dan,
    Upon reading Jame’s post, I flicked through your old recommendations. Whilst I commend you on calling the initial north sea oil investments correctly gaining well over 100%. However many of these have dropped almost 50% since you still continued to push them. I have just one question… how thankful are you that lloyds did not allow you take out a loan facility of a million pounds to put into encore at 135?

  16. Nibor says:

    James, had you bothered to tak note of BMD’s recent comments on Nostra Terra, you would have been a lot happier.

    • JAmes says:

      I’m not blaming BMD for my investments. I don’t follow him. Although I do read the blog and find myself agreeing with some suggestions and disagreeing with others. If you look back at some of my (few) posts (none of which were remotely ‘disgracefully abusive’) you will see that I’ve actually criticised people who blame BMD for their failing investments.

      My problem and the one I was highlighting is the absence of transparency on this website and how it is controlled to set Dan in the best of possible lights. So while he had got it right on a number of occasions, there have also been others were he has used the word ‘hold’ (which is investment advice by the by…) and got it wrong…all I’m suggesting is that we have transparency on this. As it stands it seems he is controlling his image to create a picture of infallibility that is misleading to some less experienced or knowledgeable investors (the very people he claims to help).

      Its a suggestion and a small critique. The fact that Dan replied in such vituperative terms, suggests I hit a sensitive spot. I have never posted anything abusive…and, in any case, certainly no where near the abuse he has hurled at me and others. When for instance have I called BMD a ‘moron’ or an ‘idiot’.

      However, for the sake of balance, the Million Challenge is a step closer to transparency and seems. So its not all digs, just something I noticed.

      But I assume you won’t post this Dan, so its a private message between us clarifying the terms of my argument. If you have these so called ‘disgracefully abusive’ posts from me I would like to see them? Smear campaign? Another way to control dissent?

  17. BrianBrian2 says:

    Thanks for the xcite explanation Dan, you know its a Godsend to us hoy polloy. Some of us, well alright me, would drive straight thru shares that have a big red light attached, simply because of the jargon used to explain why, “we are pleased to announce” RNS messages. They might be “pleased” until somebody explains the RNS is a bummer….. I nearly bought some XEL when they dropped the first 50p and glad I didn’t, as after inquiring in vain of my brokers as to what it all meant, they had dropped another 50p Keep up the good work Dan AND YES, I LIKE THE SPELL CHECKER, I AM ALWAYS CONCIOUSE OF MY ILLITERACY.