Interesting piece here vis-a-vis the oil price over this year and next with forecasts ranging on average of $120 a barrel.
(Reuters) – J.P. Morgan raised oil price forecasts for the rest of 2011 and 2012, a day after prices plunged an unprecedented $12 a barrel, as the bank expects tight supplies to offset economic headwinds.
The bank raised its Brent LCOc1 forecast for the third quarter to $130 a barrel from $108, for the fourth quarter to $120 a barrel from $108 and overall 2011 forecast to $120 a barrel from $110.
J.P. Morgan expects WTI CLc1 to average $109.5 per barrel in 2011, up from its previous forecast of $99. It projects Brent averaging $120 a barrel and WTI averaging $114 a barrel in 2012.
The bank said its current supply and demand projections show a supply shortfall of 600,000 barrels per day (kbd) in the third quarter, even assuming that OPEC increases output by 1.2 million barrels per day (mbd) in the coming months.
Although the deficit could narrow to just 300 kbd by the fourth quarter, that narrowing would depend heavily on additional output increases by Saudi Arabia to 9.5 mbd, Angola to 1.7 mbd, and Iraq to 3.0 mbd by the end of the year, the bank said.