Just a quick one on Aurelian Oil & Gas. Highlighted on the blog several times. You’ll all recall how the Blog predicted that Toscafund were set to increase their stake to over 20%? Well there are very strong indications that the recently reported approach for 25p which was strongly rejected by the Board according to sources within the city, was actually laughed out of the room by Aurelian.
Last month Aurelian appointed investment bank Greenhill as advisor on several takeover approaches (thought to be still ongoing) it is known and widely rumoured/accepted in the city and on the trading floors that a minimum of 45/50p per share are the bottom book figures being touted by Greenhill. Aurelian have net cash of just over £70 million pounds which if my maths are correct equates to 14p per share. The company value comes in at between 85/90 million pounds depending on the current sp fluctuation. Toscafund (23%) and Jan Kulczyk (13.8%) own approx’ 37% of the company.
There is no way in this world that they will accept 25p. So expect more news of an increased offer over the next few weeks . Eyes on here. They could spike to 30p in a matter of days depending on news-flow which is as you all know the driver here. And don’t forget they actually have some decent assets to boot! So now we know why Toscafund were increasing their stake! Of course they’ll deny all as to the reasons why they’ve been increasing their stake but the very fact that Greenhill are advising speaks volumes!