Some good news came today from Aurealian which looks as though it is now in recovery. Toscafund increasing their stake. On 26 September 2011 Aurelian received a TR1 Notification of Major Interests in Shares from Toscafund Asset Management LLP, on behalf of Tosca Mid Cap, Tosca Opportunity and DB Platinum Tosca Mid Cap Equity Fund, stating that, as at 22 September 2011 there had been an acquisition of shares and an acquisition of financial instruments with similar economic effect to qualifying financial instruments. These transactions took the relevant interests to above the 15% threshold.
Toscafund have increased their stake after the result of the Trzek-3 appraisal was announced (which as you all know is still ongoing) and rumour has it after speaking to the company face to face and via the conference call Toscafund in-house analysis must be positive otherwise they would not increase. A holistic analysis. Aurelian still remain tight-lipped to us lesser mortals trying to gauge which way the Interims are going! With the company rolling out the usual line. etc “Flow testing results end of September with a further update on the well test, the Company’s ongoing appraisal plans and the subsequent timing of gas commercialisation from the Siekierki Tight Gas project, will be provided as part of the Company’s interim results presentation.”
So what do Toscafund know that we don’t?
That is the question holders of stock should be asking. There’s certainly buyers in the market here I’d expect that in-light of Tosca buying we could see a rash of Director buys to offset the Tosca buys. Could it be that Toscafund expect/think that Aurelian will release better than expected results on the on-going flow-test? Food for thought. It’s still all to play for here. Tosca haven’t thrown in the towel they’ve thrown in more cash, there will be some form of production from Trzek-3 hence why you should look at this company as a recovery-play.