GKP Update 12 (Buy)

Speculation is growing that an RNS is in the offing from GKP. Could be another draw down of funds. Rumour here is that most of the small Private Investors will be gone before Takeover/Production happens. I personally disagree with that sentiment knowing that it was PI’s that were the first to recognise the potential of the Kurdistan Blocks. There is a definate expectation that Kozel is up to some thing as we speak. (I am hearing of a Board meeting that has been held re’ equity/draw down) The speculation from the floors is that expectations may be about to be raised some time this month. Hunt oil are rumoured to be in the shadows cultivating one or two of the GKP/Etamic board. Whether it’s true or just down to a chance meeting between GKP /Hunt who knows. But there’s a definate sea change beginning to be felt here.

Good Luck


PS. I have now acquired a small stake in GKP.

You may also like...

No Responses

  1. randalf says:

    As to the PI’s being gone before T/O or production.

    If someone were to offer me, say, £30 a share before T/O or production I would probably say yes.

    As soon as serious money starts being offered the PIs will be gone IMO

    • trackmanbasic says:

      as another pi the only way they will get my shares is at about £20 your figure sounds better

      • randalf says:

        Message to the chins

        I’m also in at a low enough figure that you’d have to do the mother of all tree shakes to get me out.

        and run the risk that PI’s would pile in, making the share shortage worse.

        Nope, £30 and i’ll walk, thank you very much, nice doing business with you – any less and i’m in til T/O.

        Your move.

        • theshipscook says:

          if anything, if there is a sniff that a lot of PI’s will be gone as alluded here, all I can see happening is the opposite, and more will be on board. Been here since May.. NOT selling for anything near the current valuation.

        • Stallionman says:

          Your having a laugh aren’t you £30 a share!!!! we will be lucky to get £3 a share by takeover.

          Were have you done your calcs? on the back of a 20 cig packet ? think the 20 must have got into your calculations LOL

        • randalf says:

          actually Stallionman I am havin a laff

          to get me to sell up before T/O and walk away I want £30/share, otherwise I’m content to see this one out. 🙂

          That said, Sinopec did a deal in Kurdistan that worked out at $5/barrel of oil to the company they bought.

          If you give GKP the same value and work off the following assumptions. 15bn barrels of oil, GKP have 40% of it, 35% recovery, 1.65$/£, 485m shares in issue.

          that would push forward a £13+ sp with no value for algeria or the other 3 blocks. So while £30 is completely unrealistic at this time, it’s by no means completely off the scale – just nearly.

  2. aj says:

    Nice to hear you’ve acquired a few shares and many thanks for the update.

  3. stewart says:

    Hi Dan,

    Thanks very much for your recent update, nice to see the share price rising, last week or so it’s all been red, regarding Hunt oil they seem a very large private oil company and are in the adjacent block I believe, is your view that they would take a stake by acquiring new shares out of the 250M that can still be issued thus allowing GKP to raise the cash to advance to production. I am assuming if we require crica £85M they would take approxametly a 15% stake


  4. Jake says:

    Hi Dan,

    Interesting post this is the first time I have posted on your site but have read all your info on GKP, you stated that there are rumours that all the small PIs will be gone by T/O this makes no sense, why would everyone sell out? Where would anyone get this idea? also do u think the imminent placing/drawdown will affect the current sp?, can’t see a placing much below recent director buy price so should be good news, would like to see some funds from bloody etamic but that’s another issue, keep up the good work

  5. Northwestern says:

    Re: Hunt Oil Talks. This as been in the pipeline since the inception of GKP and its Fellow Oil Explorers in Kurdistan. Location in Kurdistan of the Texas Oil Comapny’s is an insight to how deals were cut by influential Politicians in the Bush White-House. Hunt Oil and Aspect Energy ? engaged in discussions during 2007,when did GKP obtain the PSA/PSC. Were agreements made then, for a power play when Oil was struck.
    Etamic a possible off shoot of all 3 comapny’s, what reason though?

  6. maguire says:

    City of London is watching you Danny and reading this blog!!!!!!!!!!
    Danny have you checked out your newly installed SITE METER?
    Makes interesting reading. Barclays Global Investors are reading YOUR BLOG!!! LMAO!! As well as many other city of London hits there must be over 200 City of London hits some even give the names of their brokerages!
    Your under the microscope me old china!!!


  7. Diamondbob says:

    The markets are looking for general uptick, oil is now nearing the bottom of it’s recent trading range, so a bounce should be on the cards, all in all could be a positive week coming up regardless of any RNS or T/O rumours.

    Let’s see how it reacts if the fabled ‘santa rally’ kicks off.

    Good luck all

    diamond bob

  8. Ray says:

    Hi Dan…Thanks for all your comments….Would you give your view on possible OPEC reaction to mega oil from iraq….I think it may not be welcome, as more oil on market, less power to manipulate price….Could one of the major OPEC players buy GKP and other oilies,then just sit on oil until advantageous to them to produce. I think OPEC must have been looking at Iraq for some time and not without some trepidation. Long term we need all the oil we can get, but short term we have excess capacity. In short oil is a dirty business and I suspect we could have some dirty tricks played. For the record I am very long and hope for a soon to be take-over, as it seems the best way for the small punter to make maximum profit. Also the Hunt brothers and Nelson Bunker Hunt go way back with the Bush family, funding their presidencies and more, so I think they are a goo fit for GKP. Just a few of my ramblings, I think you are better qualified to comment than me….Regards and good luck

    • Brokerman says:

      There are eleven member countries of OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. They are: Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela.

      IRAQ/KURDISTAN will tow whatever line OPEC decide.

      You are quite correct that the industry is riddled with dirty tricks/corruption and yes i am well aware of Hunt oil and its connections to the last USA administration.

      Good post


      • axis says:

        Hello Dan,
        Thanks for all the info past and present.

        Iraq are not part of the OPEC oil target restrictions

        “Opec secretary general Abdullah al-Badri has said that the group is unlikely to confer an oil output target on Iraq for several years, to allow its industry to recover from decades of sanctions, war and neglect, Reuters has reported. Iraq, which desperately needs investment to boost output and repair infrastructure, is exempt from the group’s production target system, he said.”

        All the best


        • Brokerman says:

          Though i take your point about the exemption (Goodpoint) i know from past experience that an awful lot of OPEC business is done unofficially and that Iraqi oil sales will be broadly inline with OPEC REG’S. I think you’ll find that the moment Iraq try to flood the market with cheaper oil OPEC will quickly crack the whip bringing Iraqi oil back into the restrictive practices always observed by OPEC members.


  9. aj says:

    Hi Dan,

    Hop alls well, quick question have you heard anything regarding SONGBIRD ESTATES. I noted over £7M of purchases in just the last 3 days of trading and with the recent article in the Daily Mail it seems something significant is occurring. What’s the opinion within the city?

    Many thanks in advance.


    • Brokerman says:

      I did take take some soundings this morning re songbird. There are an awful lot of long faces on this one start to ask questions and faces get pulled.. The feeling here is that they are just going through the motions until there’s a bid. I do note that there are expectations that an offeree will stump up 200/300p on takeover when ever that comes who knows but it is certainly expected that they are going to go to the Chinese or the middle east. There may be a counter bid if one gets out bid by the other but they are definately expected to be hovered up.


  10. Diamondbob says:

    Also I might have read somewhere that after a director buy an rns release is prohibited for 30 days. I’m sure someone will correct me on this soon enough!!!

  11. Steve Jackson says:

    Dan, you might as you say ‘personally disagree with that sentiment’, but your statement that ‘most of the small Private Investors will be gone before Takeover/Production happens’ – is a statement of fact.
    My old boss, god rest his soul, would say to me ’son, always look at the bottom line’, a lot of his era said that, they were around when the asset strippers of the late 50’s and 60’s came to the fore.
    He said he was taught by the best, he could look at a balance sheet and tell you in, let’s say 5mins how much he could buy it for, it might take 6 months, it might take a few shenanigans along the way
    But 9 times out of 10, the company would be his and a changed outfit within the year.
    The funny thing is many of them then lasted longer than if they had been left alone to stew.
    He was responsible for the demolition of more factory chimneys in the north-west than Fred Dibnah.

    When looking at the bottom line, you look for debt and you look for revenue stream. GKP don’t have any debt, but they don’t have a pot of gold to dip into either, and they have a revenue stream less than my local cash & carry.
    So they are ideal for a takeover. They can’t possibly last more than 1 year on their own, and they (the directors) know that, which at least we know they are willing – all we need to do now is haggle about the price.
    The sweet thing is, and this is where the PI’s will get stuffed, in order to continue their drilling program they will need access to cash, a lot more than at present.
    The restriction on sales is excellent news for those who wish to look at a T/O, that restricts any possible revenue in the short term.

  12. suzie says:

    hello this takeover shud be happening by march after second drill..wha u guys tink

  13. Diamondbob says:

    Oil now at $70 or there abouts, if it breaks into the 60’s then expect this stock to follow, regardless of wherever it is in terms of ‘production’ let’s hope not then!

    Good luck all